Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.663971 5.135341 5.666209 6.315553 7.098640 8.026509 9.231320
2025-01-19 3.902172 4.467743 5.150098 6.054955 7.258478 8.862180 11.276958
2025-01-26 3.598948 4.238132 5.049545 6.195531 7.849309 10.299527 14.582721
2025-02-02 3.439148 4.147542 5.087235 6.492187 8.684285 12.308313 19.841610
2025-02-09 3.277891 4.026941 5.055758 6.667730 9.358730 14.286733 26.594481
2025-02-16 3.071562 3.819851 4.871824 6.574094 9.556995 15.463572 32.745534
2025-02-23 2.906235 3.653090 4.724872 6.510484 9.784359 16.786355 41.206698
2025-03-02 2.759681 3.500035 4.581095 6.427919 9.952772 18.054121 52.100904
2025-03-09 2.632604 3.365188 4.451464 6.349585 10.109424 19.376749 67.349802
2025-03-16 2.533788 3.264611 4.365310 6.333998 10.390220 21.199550 94.963862
2025-03-23 2.473407 3.216705 4.357154 6.455364 10.996426 24.422086 172.561599
2025-03-30 2.374606 3.104167 4.235139 6.349362 11.057547 25.895484 271.793961
2025-04-06 2.271350 2.981396 4.091229 6.192847 10.984174 26.934473 453.167360
2025-04-13 2.157601 2.837405 3.903994 5.935776 10.618990 26.625324 606.258743
2025-04-20 2.122485 2.813795 3.916271 6.071646 11.288594 31.464254 NaN
2025-04-27 2.114061 2.831073 3.998378 6.358358 12.458622 40.846896 NaN
2025-05-04 2.086622 2.816061 4.022725 6.527877 13.364076 51.190709 NaN
2025-05-11 2.022984 2.739202 3.932131 6.437468 13.441542 55.621028 NaN
2025-05-18 1.967684 2.673614 3.857954 6.376032 13.603132 61.612127 NaN
2025-05-25 1.913380 2.607458 3.779058 6.296269 13.687171 67.454500 NaN
2025-06-01 1.862898 2.545691 3.704932 6.220573 13.771380 74.111722 NaN
2025-06-08 1.823283 2.500461 3.658818 6.205507 14.076612 86.097858 NaN
2025-06-15 1.802493 2.485766 3.668383 6.322785 14.928278 116.394730 NaN